Reason 3: The United States continues to underinvest in primary care.

Primary care is not an attractive choice for trainees who see high levels of burnout,58 poor relative compensation,59 and unsustainable workloads.58, 60 To attract more people to primary care, and retain them, a larger financial commitment is required. Unfortunately, primary care spend, or the proportion of total health care expenditures going to primary care, remains unsustainably low.

Although investment varies by payer and state, we found low levels of investment (4.7%) persisted in 2021 when using the narrow definition of primary care spend (primary care physicians only) (Figure 9). Primary care investment by commercial payers and Medicaid dropped over the past decade, while Medicare’s investment in primary care was stagnant but low. Between 2019 and 2021, we find that primary care investment has decreased for all payers, and this decrease has been the most drastic for Medicare, which had a 15% drop. This rapid decline between 2019 and 2021 may have to do with decreased utilization of office-based visits during the pandemic,61 but it is a trend worth watching.

Using the broad definition of primary care spend (PCPs and office-based spending for NPs, PAs, OB/GYNs, and behavioral health specialists), 13.5% of total spending was invested in primary care in 2021. It seems that higher spend using the broad definition is driven by spending for behavioral health services (see Appendix). Notably, this behavioral health spend is not necessarily for behavioral health integrated with primary care, which would improve access and reduce fragmentation. Instead, it includes all visits billed to behavioral health (physician and nonphysician) specialists.

Primary care physicians provide the most office visits and the most comprehensive set of health care services of any specialty,62 which in turn lowers total health care costs and improves utilization of health care services.63 It should come as no surprise that access to primary care is limited when we are spending, on average, only 5% of total health care expenditures on these services.

Figure 9. Primary Care Spending (Narrow Definition) Remains Low Across All Insurers (2012-2021)

Data Source: Analyses of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, 2012–2021.
Notes: The primary care narrow definition is restricted to primary care physicians only. Primary care specialties included family medicine, general practices, internal medicine, geriatrics, pediatrics, and osteopathy.

In addition, without appropriate investment in primary care, advances that could improve access are stalled. Team-based care,64–66 the use of technology,67, 68 and most recently, the incorporation of artificial intelligence into the primary care workflow69–73 all have the potential to expand access. Yet, these advances in care delivery all require upfront investments in infrastructure and payment models that compensate primary care teams for providing comprehensive care rather than compensating only doctors for providing specific services.


Notes

  1. McDonald C, Henderson A, Barlow P, Keith J. Assessing factors for choosing a primary care specialty in medical students: a longitudinal study. Med Educ Online. 2021;26(1):1890901. doi:10.1080/10872981.2021.1890901.
  2. Kim BY, Yoon I, Han SJ, et al. Specialty impact on residents’ perceived quality of life, stress, and job satisfaction: a comparative study. Ann Surg Treat Res. 2023;105(4):188-197. doi:10.4174/astr.2023.105.4.188.
  3. Alexander GC, Tajanlangit M, Heyward J, Mansour O, Qato DM, Stafford RS. Use and content of primary care office-based vs telemedicine care visits during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(10):e2021476. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.21476.
  4. Moore M, Gibbons C, Cheng N, Coffman M, Petterson S, Bazemore A. Complexity of ambulatory care visits of patients with diabetes as reflected by diagnoses per visit. Primary Care Diabetes. 2016;10(4):281-286. doi:10.1016/j.pcd.2015.11.006.
  5. Bazemore A, Petterson S, Peterson LE, Phillips RL. More comprehensive care among family physicians is associated with lower costs and fewer hospitalizations. Ann Fam Med. 2015;13(3):206-213. doi:10.1370/afm.1787.
  6. Angstman KB, Horn JL, Bernard ME, et al. Family medicine panel size with care teams: impact on quality. J Am Board Fam Med. 2016;29(4):444-451. doi:10.3122/jabfm.2016.04.150364.
  7. Altschuler J, Margolius D, Bodenheimer T, Grumbach K. Estimating a reasonable patient panel size for primary care physicians with team-based task delegation. Ann Fam Med. 2012;10(5):396-400. doi:10.1370/afm.1400.
  8. Hopkins KD, Sinsky C. Taking team-based care to the next level. Fam Pract Manag. 2022;29(3):25-31.
  9. Gujral K, Scott JY, Ambady L, et al. A primary care telehealth pilot program to improve access: associations with patients’ health care utilization and costs. Telemed J E Health. 2022;28(5):643-653. doi:10.1089/tmj.2021.0284
  10. Cannedy S, Leung L, Wyte-Lake T, et al. Primary care team perspectives on the suitability of telehealth modality (phone vs video) at the Veterans Health Administration. J Prim Care Community Health. 2023;14:21501319231172897. doi:10.1177/21501319231172897.
  11. Lin SY, Mahoney MR, Sinsky CA. Ten ways artificial intelligence will transform primary care. J Gen Intern Med. 2019;34(8):1626-1630. doi:10.1007/s11606-019-05035-1.
  12. US Government Accountability Office. Artificial intelligence in health care: benefits and challenges of machine learning technologies for medical diagnostics. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-104629. Published November 10, 2022. Accessed November 6, 2023.
  13. Nundy S, Hodgkins ML. The application of AI to augment physicians and reduce burnout. Health Affairs Forefront. September 18, 2018. doi:10.1377/forefront.20180914.711688.
  14. Dai T, Abràmoff MD. Incorporating artificial intelligence into healthcare workflows: models and insights. In: Tutorials in Operations Research: Advancing theFrontiers of OR/MS: From Methodologies to Applications. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research. INFORMS; 2023:133-155. doi:10.1287/educ.2023.0257.
  15. Yang Z, Silcox C, Sendak M, et al. Advancing primary care with artificial intelligence and machine learning. Healthcare. 2022;10(1):100594. doi:10.1016/j.hjdsi.2021.100594.